Alianza FC 1–0 Herrera: Result & Stats

Alianza FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Herrera

R. Verley 87'

8/24/2024

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 6Estadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Alianza FC44%

×Draw28%

Herrera28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza FCExpected goals in this matchHerrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

Alianza FC

1.33

Herrera

1.00

Alianza FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 92 away

1.05

creates per match

0.97

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Alianza FC

1.05

Herrera

0.97

allows per match

Alianza FC

1.03

Herrera

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par

Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Herrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw

72%

Alianza FC or Herrera

72%

Draw or Herrera

56%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+

21%

Herrera wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals

74%

Alianza FC 2+ goals

38%

Alianza FC 3+ goals

15%

Herrera 1+ goals

63%

Herrera 2+ goals

26%

Herrera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)

61%

Herrera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Herrera attack 0.97 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza FC scores more

44%

level

28%

Herrera scores more

28%

Alianza FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

J. Rivas

55'

J. Rodríguez← J. Pinilla

58'

A. Díaz← A. Mendoza

61'

66'

R. Jimenez

72'

C. de la Rosa← G. Chiari

72'

R. Verley← H. Guardia

74'

J. López← R. Villarreal

82'

I. Espinosa← G. Rangel

82'

D. Spencer← A. Frías

85'

E. Florez← J. González

87'

R. Verley

90+5'

K. Melgar

Alianza

Herrera

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Nimbley

58'▲A. Díaz←▼A. Mendoza

72'▲C. de la Rosa←▼G. Chiari

72'▲R. Verley←▼H. Guardia

82'▲I. Espinosa←▼G. Rangel

82'▲D. Spencer←▼A. Frías

Alianza FC substitutes

DíazRosaVerleyEspinosaSpencerFloresCawthorneRoblesGracia

Manager: E. Demaldé

55'▲J. Rodríguez←▼J. Pinilla

74'▲J. López←▼R. Villarreal

85'▲E. Florez←▼J. González

Herrera substitutes

RodríguezLópezFlorezGómezCubillaHidalgoQuinteroÁvila