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Alianza FC vs Herrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Alianza FC
Alianza FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Herrera
Herrera
4/17/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Alianza FC44%
×Draw28%
Herrera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza FC
1.33
Herrera
1.00

Alianza FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 92 away

creates per match

Alianza FC
1.05
Herrera
0.97

allows per match

Alianza FC
1.03
Herrera
1.60

finishing

Alianza FC+0.00on par
Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza FC ↓

Herrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza FC or draw
72%
Alianza FC or Herrera
72%
Draw or Herrera
56%

Winning margin

Alianza FC wins by 2+
21%
Herrera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza FC 1+ goals
74%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
38%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
15%
Herrera 1+ goals
63%
Herrera 2+ goals
26%
Herrera 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza FC (draw refunded)
61%
Herrera (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 132 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza FC attack 1.05 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Herrera attack 0.97 + Alianza FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza FC scores more
44%
level
28%
Herrera scores more
28%

Alianza FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza FC vs Herrera

Herrera beat Alianza FC 3-2 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz in Ciudad de Panamá.