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Alianza Cutral Có vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Alianza Cutral Có
Alianza Cutral Có
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CAI
CAI
M. Villegas 51'
10/15/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 10Estadio El Coloso del Ruca Quimey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alianza Cutral Có36%
×Draw23%
CAI41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Cutral Có
1.65
CAI
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 26 away

creates per match

Alianza Cutral Có
1.67
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Alianza Cutral Có
2.33
CAI
1.62

finishing

Alianza Cutral Có+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Cutral Có ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alianza Cutral Có or draw
59%
Alianza Cutral Có or CAI
77%
Draw or CAI
64%

Winning margin

Alianza Cutral Có wins by 2+
18%
CAI wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Alianza Cutral Có 1+ goals
81%
Alianza Cutral Có 2+ goals
49%
Alianza Cutral Có 3+ goals
23%
CAI 1+ goals
83%
CAI 2+ goals
53%
CAI 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alianza Cutral Có (draw refunded)
47%
CAI (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Cutral Có at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Cutral Có attack 1.67 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

CAI attack 1.23 + Alianza Cutral Có defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Cutral Có scores more
36%
level
23%
CAI scores more
41%

CAI at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
M. Villegas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Cutral Có vs CAI

CAI beat Alianza Cutral Có 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 15, 2014.

Goals: M. Villegas (51').

The match was played at Estadio El Coloso del Ruca Quimey in Cutral Có, Provincia del Neuquén.