Alianza Atletico 3–0 UCV Moquegua: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UCV Moquegua

J. Perez 74'

F. Flores 68'

F. Coronel 32'

3/15/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alianza Atletico58%

×Draw25%

UCV Moquegua16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.69

Alianza Atletico

1.57

UCV Moquegua

0.69

Alianza Atletico creates 128% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.44

0.94

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.47

UCV Moquegua

0.44

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.94

UCV Moquegua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

84%

Alianza Atletico or UCV Moquegua

75%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

42%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

31%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

79%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

46%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

21%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

50%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

15%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

78%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.94 · 94 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.47 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

UCV Moquegua attack 0.44 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

58%

level

25%

UCV Moquegua scores more

16%

Alianza Atletico at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Diaz

Alianza Atletico · M

8.2

Match Events

26'

J. Perez← A. Munoz

32'

F. Coronel

56'

N. Chavez← D. Ramirez

57'

J. Lopez← E. Lastre

61'

Bryan Angulo← J. Collazos

68'

F. Flores

71'

G. A. Larios Saavedra← F. Coronel

74'

J. Perez

80'

C. Mejia← A. Davila

80'

J. Jimenez← Y. Zapata

85'

V. Robaldo← G. Diaz

85'

J. Delgado← H. Lupu

85'

S. Fernandez← F. Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaUCV

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots11

7Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots11

7On Target4

3Off Target2

1Blocked5

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

444Total Passes309

371Accurate Passes237

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

4Offsides2