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Alianza Atletico vs Sport Loreto — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
4/21/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal Melanio Coloma Calderón (Sullana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alianza Atletico69%
×Draw17%
Sport Loreto13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
2.41
Sport Loreto
0.94

Alianza Atletico creates 156% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Sport Loreto
0.96

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Sport Loreto
2.60

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Sport Loreto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
87%
Alianza Atletico or Sport Loreto
83%
Draw or Sport Loreto
31%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
47%
Sport Loreto wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
91%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
69%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
43%
Sport Loreto 1+ goals
61%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
24%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
84%
Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.41

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
69%
level
17%
Sport Loreto scores more
13%

Alianza Atletico at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Sport Loreto

Alianza Atletico beat Sport Loreto 2-1 in Segunda División on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Melanio Coloma Calderón (Sullana).