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Alianza Atletico vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
7/18/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Alianza Atletico48%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
1.48
Sport Huancayo
0.99

Alianza Atletico creates 49% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 147 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
1.46
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.93
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
75%
Alianza Atletico or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
52%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
24%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
77%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
43%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
19%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
63%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
26%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
66%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.46 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
48%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
25%

Alianza Atletico at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 0–0 Sport Huancayo

Alianza Atletico and Sport Huancayo drew 0-0 in Primera División on July 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.