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Alianza Atletico vs Sport Chavelines Juniors — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
11/11/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Alianza Atletico59%
×Draw21%
Sport Chavelines Juniors20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
2.04
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.10

Alianza Atletico creates 85% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.30

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.85

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Sport Chavelines Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
80%
Alianza Atletico or Sport Chavelines Juniors
79%
Draw or Sport Chavelines Juniors
41%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
36%
Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
87%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
60%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
33%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
67%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
30%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
75%
Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.30 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
59%
level
21%
Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
20%

Alianza Atletico at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alianza Atletico 3–1 Sport Chavelines Juniors

Alianza Atletico beat Sport Chavelines Juniors 3-1 in Segunda División on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.