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Alianza Atletico vs Macara — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Macara
Macara
5/1/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alianza Atletico19%
×Draw32%
Macara49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
0.59
Macara
1.13

Macara creates 92% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
0.75
Macara
1.00

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
1.25
Macara
0.43

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–120%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
51%
Alianza Atletico or Macara
68%
Draw or Macara
81%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
5%
Macara wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
45%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
12%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
2%
Macara 1+ goals
68%
Macara 2+ goals
31%
Macara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
28%
Macara (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Macara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 0.75 + Macara defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.59

Macara attack 1.00 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
19%
level
32%
Macara scores more
49%

Macara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Macara

Macara beat Alianza Atletico 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.