Alianza Atletico vs Juan Aurich — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Alianza Atletico58%
Juan Aurich20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Atletico creates 82% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Atletico ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches
Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.95
Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Alianza Atletico at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cesar Vallejo
Carlos A. Mannucci
Cienciano
Union Huaral
Deportivo HualgayocJuan AurichAlianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Coopsol
LOS Caimanes
Sport Victoria
Sport Loreto
Alfredo Salinas
Serrato PacasmayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza Atletico host Juan Aurich on Sunday, 13 October 2019 at 18:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Juan Aurich
Alianza Atletico beat Juan Aurich 3-1 in Segunda División on October 13, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.