Alianza Atletico 2–0 Deportivo Garcilaso

Alianza Atletico

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

3/4/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alianza Atletico38%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Garcilaso32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.00

Alianza Atletico

1.13

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.00

Alianza Atletico creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

0.75

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

0.75

Deportivo Garcilaso

0.75

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

1.25

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

68%

Alianza Atletico or Deportivo Garcilaso

70%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

62%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

68%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

31%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

55%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 0.75 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 0.75 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

38%

level

30%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

32%

Alianza Atletico at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff