Alianza Atletico 1–0 Deportivo Coopsol

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Coopsol

8/26/2018

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Campeones del '36 (Sullana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alianza Atletico58%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Coopsol20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Coopsol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Alianza Atletico

1.93

Deportivo Coopsol

1.04

Alianza Atletico creates 86% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

2.22

creates per match

1.18

0.91

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

2.22

Deportivo Coopsol

1.18

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.91

Deportivo Coopsol

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

80%

Alianza Atletico or Deportivo Coopsol

78%

Draw or Deportivo Coopsol

42%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

34%

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

85%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

57%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

30%

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

58%

level

22%

Deportivo Coopsol scores more

20%

Alianza Atletico at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff