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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
CANC
14:00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
4/30/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 27Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna49%
×Draw27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.42
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.92

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 54% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 51 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
76%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
73%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
51%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
24%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
76%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
41%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
17%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
60%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
23%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
67%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
49%
level
27%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
24%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alians Lypova Dolyna host Podillya Khmelnytskyi

April 30, 2022: Alians Lypova Dolyna take on Podillya Khmelnytskyi in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alians Lypova Dolyna host Podillya Khmelnytskyi at Stadion Yuvilejnyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.