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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Nyva Ternopil — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
CANC
14:00
Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
4/2/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 23Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna50%
×Draw26%
Nyva Ternopil25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52
Nyva Ternopil
0.99

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 54% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 77 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
Nyva Ternopil
0.99

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.34

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Nyva Ternopil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
75%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Nyva Ternopil
74%
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
50%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
25%
Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
78%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
45%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
20%
Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
63%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
26%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
67%
Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
50%
level
26%
Nyva Ternopil scores more
25%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alians Lypova Dolyna host Nyva Ternopil

April 2, 2022: Alians Lypova Dolyna take on Nyva Ternopil in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alians Lypova Dolyna host Nyva Ternopil at Stadion Yuvilejnyj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.