Alians Lypova Dolyna 2–0 Nikopol: Result & Stats

Alians Lypova Dolyna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nikopol

10/9/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 14Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna73%

×Draw17%

Nikopol10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alians Lypova DolynaExpected goals in this matchNikopol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

0.77

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.39

Nikopol

0.77

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 210% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

2.50

creates per match

1.03

0.50

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.50

Nikopol

1.03

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

0.50

Nikopol

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Nikopol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Nikopol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw

90%

Alians Lypova Dolyna or Nikopol

83%

Draw or Nikopol

27%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

50%

Nikopol wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

91%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

69%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

42%

Nikopol 1+ goals

54%

Nikopol 2+ goals

18%

Nikopol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

88%

Nikopol (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Nikopol away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.50 + Nikopol defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.39

Nikopol attack 1.03 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

73%

level

17%

Nikopol scores more

10%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff