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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Mykolaiv — Persha Liga 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mykolaiv
Mykolaiv
9/21/2020Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 3Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna44%
×Draw26%
Mykolaiv30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.43
Mykolaiv
1.14

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.69
Mykolaiv
1.27

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.00
Mykolaiv
1.17

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Mykolaiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Mykolaiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
70%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Mykolaiv
74%
Draw or Mykolaiv
56%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
21%
Mykolaiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
76%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
42%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
17%
Mykolaiv 1+ goals
68%
Mykolaiv 2+ goals
32%
Mykolaiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
59%
Mykolaiv (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Mykolaiv away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Mykolaiv defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mykolaiv attack 1.27 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
44%
level
26%
Mykolaiv scores more
30%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Mykolaiv

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Mykolaiv 1-0 in Persha Liga on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Sumy.