Alians Lypova Dolyna 0–2 Metal Kharkiv

Alians Lypova Dolyna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Metal Kharkiv

7/26/2021

Persha Liga · Round 1Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna42%

×Draw27%

Metal Kharkiv32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alians Lypova DolynaExpected goals in this matchMetal Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.38

Metal Kharkiv

1.17

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 50 away

1.69

creates per match

1.34

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.69

Metal Kharkiv

1.34

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.00

Metal Kharkiv

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Metal Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw

68%

Alians Lypova Dolyna or Metal Kharkiv

73%

Draw or Metal Kharkiv

58%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

19%

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

75%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

40%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

16%

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

69%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

33%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

57%

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.69 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

42%

level

27%

Metal Kharkiv scores more

32%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff