Aliance 1–4 Limbaži: Result & Stats | Cup

Aliance

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Limbaži

5/21/2022

Cup · 1st RoundRīgas 49. vidusskolas sporta komplekss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aliance62%

×Draw15%

Limbaži23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlianceExpected goals in this matchLimbaži

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.63

2.88

Aliance

4.63

Limbaži

2.88

Aliance creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

4.83

creates per match

3.43

2.33

allows per match

4.43

creates per match

Aliance

4.83

Limbaži

3.43

allows per match

Aliance

2.33

Limbaži

4.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aliance+0.00on par

Limbaži+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes93
No7

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aliance ↓

Limbaži →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–11%

1–21%

1–31%

1–41%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–14%

4–25%

4–35%

4–44%

Most likely 3–2 (5%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

93%7%4.5

83%17%

Double chance

Aliance or draw

77%

Aliance or Limbaži

85%

Draw or Limbaži

38%

Winning margin

Aliance wins by 2+

45%

Limbaži wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aliance 1+ goals

99%

Aliance 2+ goals

93%

Aliance 3+ goals

80%

Limbaži 1+ goals

94%

Limbaži 2+ goals

78%

Limbaži 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Aliance (draw refunded)

73%

Limbaži (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

92%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aliance at home — creates 4.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Limbaži away — creates 3.43, concedes 4.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aliance attack 4.83 + Limbaži defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 4.63

Limbaži attack 3.43 + Aliance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Aliance scores more

62%

level

15%

Limbaži scores more

23%

Aliance at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Aliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff