Aliança AL 2–0 Jacyobá: Result & Stats

Aliança AL

FT

2 – 0

Jacyobá

9/26/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Campo de Futebol Tadeuzão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Aliança AL78%

×Draw15%

Jacyobá8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aliança ALExpected goals in this matchJacyobá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.67

Aliança AL

2.54

Jacyobá

0.67

Aliança AL creates 279% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.08

creates per match

0.17

1.17

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Aliança AL

2.08

Jacyobá

0.17

allows per match

Aliança AL

1.17

Jacyobá

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aliança AL+0.00on par

Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aliança AL ↓

Jacyobá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Aliança AL or draw

92%

Aliança AL or Jacyobá

85%

Draw or Jacyobá

22%

Winning margin

Aliança AL wins by 2+

55%

Jacyobá wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Aliança AL 1+ goals

92%

Aliança AL 2+ goals

72%

Aliança AL 3+ goals

46%

Jacyobá 1+ goals

49%

Jacyobá 2+ goals

15%

Jacyobá 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Aliança AL (draw refunded)

91%

Jacyobá (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aliança AL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aliança AL attack 2.08 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Aliança AL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Aliança AL scores more

78%

level

15%

Jacyobá scores more

8%

Aliança AL at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Aliança AL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff