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Aliağa FAŞ vs Serik Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Aliağa FAŞ
Aliağa FAŞ
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Serik Spor
Serik Spor
10/28/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aliağa FAŞ51%
×Draw19%
Serik Spor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aliağa FAŞ
2.63
Serik Spor
2.00

Aliağa FAŞ creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Aliağa FAŞ
2.25
Serik Spor
0.75

allows per match

Aliağa FAŞ
3.25
Serik Spor
3.00

finishing

Aliağa FAŞ+0.00on par
Serik Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aliağa FAŞ ↓

Serik Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Aliağa FAŞ or draw
70%
Aliağa FAŞ or Serik Spor
81%
Draw or Serik Spor
49%

Winning margin

Aliağa FAŞ wins by 2+
32%
Serik Spor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aliağa FAŞ 1+ goals
93%
Aliağa FAŞ 2+ goals
73%
Aliağa FAŞ 3+ goals
48%
Serik Spor 1+ goals
86%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
59%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Aliağa FAŞ (draw refunded)
63%
Serik Spor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aliağa FAŞ at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Serik Spor away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aliağa FAŞ attack 2.25 + Serik Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Serik Spor attack 0.75 + Aliağa FAŞ defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aliağa FAŞ scores more
51%
level
19%
Serik Spor scores more
30%

Aliağa FAŞ at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aliağa FAŞ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aliağa FAŞ vs Serik Spor

Aliağa FAŞ beat Serik Spor 4-3 in Türkiye Kupası on October 28, 2025.