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Alhaurino vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Alhaurino
Alhaurino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
10/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 1Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Alhaurino59%
×Draw22%
Melilla CD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alhaurino
1.98
Melilla CD
1.06

Alhaurino creates 87% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 28 away

creates per match

Alhaurino
1.34
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Alhaurino
1.30
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Alhaurino+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurino ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alhaurino or draw
80%
Alhaurino or Melilla CD
78%
Draw or Melilla CD
41%

Winning margin

Alhaurino wins by 2+
35%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alhaurino 1+ goals
86%
Alhaurino 2+ goals
59%
Alhaurino 3+ goals
31%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
65%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
29%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alhaurino (draw refunded)
75%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhaurino at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurino attack 1.34 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.98

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Alhaurino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alhaurino scores more
59%
level
22%
Melilla CD scores more
20%

Alhaurino at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alhaurino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Alhaurino 1–1 Melilla CD

Alhaurino and Melilla CD drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Fijones in Alhaurín el Grande.