Alhaurín 2–3 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Alhaurín

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Linares Deportivo

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alhaurín20%

×Draw24%

Linares Deportivo57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlhaurínExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.72

Alhaurín

0.90

Linares Deportivo

1.72

Linares Deportivo creates 91% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

2.07

1.38

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Alhaurín

1.00

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Alhaurín

1.38

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurín ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alhaurín or draw

43%

Alhaurín or Linares Deportivo

76%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

80%

Winning margin

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Alhaurín 1+ goals

59%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

23%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

82%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

51%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

26%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alhaurín at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurín attack 1.00 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Alhaurín defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alhaurín scores more

20%

level

24%

Linares Deportivo scores more

57%

Linares Deportivo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alhaurín vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Alhaurín 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales in Alhaurín de la Torre.

Alhaurín vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alhaurín vs Linares Deportivo