Alhama W 0–0 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Alhama W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

5/13/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 29Campo de Fútbol José María Soriano Muñoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alhama W38%

×Draw26%

Sporting Huelva W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alhama WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.28

Alhama W

1.34

Sporting Huelva W

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

0.77

creates per match

0.73

1.83

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Alhama W

0.77

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Alhama W

1.83

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alhama W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhama W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alhama W or draw

65%

Alhama W or Sporting Huelva W

74%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

62%

Winning margin

Alhama W wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alhama W 1+ goals

74%

Alhama W 2+ goals

39%

Alhama W 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

37%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alhama W (draw refunded)

52%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhama W at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhama W attack 0.77 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Alhama W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alhama W scores more

38%

level

26%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

35%

Alhama W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alhama W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

Paula Romero← S. Hagman

67'

Raquel Pinel← Kuki

70'

Bárbara López← B. Ágústsdóttir

81'

R. Pinel

82'

Ana de Teresa← A. Edgren

Alhama

Sporting

1

3

16

15

18

23

20

▼

Edgren

10

▼

Hagman

22

▼

11

9

1

2

3

4

18

21

9

24

11

▼

Kuki

19

Martí

12

Álvarez

Manager: Juan García

67'▲Raquel Pinel←▼Kuki

Alhama W substitutes

23Pinel13Gil27Esteban36Boluda15Morcillo30Roman

Manager: Antonio Toledo

64'▲Paula Romero←▼S. Hagman

70'▲Bárbara López←▼B. Ágústsdóttir

82'▲Ana de Teresa←▼A. Edgren

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

19Romero12López8Teresa14LaiaBallesté13Meršnik5Santana