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Alhama W vs Granada — Primera División Femenina 2018

Alhama W
Alhama W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Granada
Granada
9/13/2025Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alhama W31%
×Draw25%
Granada44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alhama W
1.24
Granada
1.54

Granada creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Alhama W
0.77
Granada
1.24

allows per match

Alhama W
1.83
Granada
1.71

finishing

Alhama W+0.00on par
Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhama W ↓

Granada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alhama W or draw
56%
Alhama W or Granada
75%
Draw or Granada
69%

Winning margin

Alhama W wins by 2+
13%
Granada wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Alhama W 1+ goals
71%
Alhama W 2+ goals
35%
Alhama W 3+ goals
13%
Granada 1+ goals
79%
Granada 2+ goals
45%
Granada 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Alhama W (draw refunded)
41%
Granada (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhama W at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhama W attack 0.77 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.24

Granada attack 1.24 + Alhama W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alhama W scores more
31%
level
25%
Granada scores more
44%

Granada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Alhama W 1–1 Granada

Alhama W and Granada drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Murcia.