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Algeti vs Shturmi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Algeti
Algeti
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Shturmi
Shturmiadvanced
G. Guldedava 82'
N. Talakhadze 80'
G. Peradze 73'
I. Lekvtadze 65' (pen), 34'
G. Omarashvili 35', 29'
T. Kurtanidze 16'
7/19/2025David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Marneulis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Algeti14%
×Draw14%
Shturmi72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeti
1.55
Shturmi
3.45

Shturmi creates 123% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Algeti
2.50
Shturmi
3.40

allows per match

Algeti
3.50
Shturmi
0.60

finishing

Algeti+0.00on par
Shturmi+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeti ↓

Shturmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Algeti or draw
28%
Algeti or Shturmi
86%
Draw or Shturmi
86%

Winning margin

Algeti wins by 2+
6%
Shturmi wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Algeti 1+ goals
79%
Algeti 2+ goals
46%
Algeti 3+ goals
20%
Shturmi 1+ goals
97%
Shturmi 2+ goals
85%
Shturmi 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Algeti (draw refunded)
17%
Shturmi (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeti at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Shturmi away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeti attack 2.50 + Shturmi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Shturmi attack 3.40 + Algeti defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Algeti scores more
14%
level
14%
Shturmi scores more
72%

Shturmi at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
T. Kurtanidze
29'
G. Omarashvili
34'
I. Lekvtadze
35'
G. Omarashvili
65'
I. LekvtadzePenalty
73'
G. Peradze
80'
N. Talakhadze
82'
G. Guldedava
Algeti
Shturmi
G. Jorjoliani
Manager: G. Jorjoliani
L. Nebieridze
Manager: L. Nebieridze

David Kipiani Cup: Algeti 0–8 Shturmi

Shturmi beat Algeti 8-0 in David Kipiani Cup on July 19, 2025.

Goals: T. Kurtanidze (16'), G. Omarashvili (29', 35'), I. Lekvtadze (34', 65' pen), G. Peradze (73'), N. Talakhadze (80'), G. Guldedava (82').

The match was played at Marneulis Stadioni in Marneuli.