Algeti 7–4 Lokomotivi Tbilisi II: Result & Stats

Algeti

7 – 4

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

6/12/2025

David Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundMarneulis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Algeti35%

×Draw18%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgetiExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

2.85

Algeti

2.45

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

2.85

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.20

3.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Algeti

2.50

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

2.20

allows per match

Algeti

3.50

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeti+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeti ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II →

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Algeti or draw

53%

Algeti or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

82%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

65%

Winning margin

Algeti wins by 2+

19%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Algeti 1+ goals

91%

Algeti 2+ goals

70%

Algeti 3+ goals

44%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 1+ goals

94%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 2+ goals

77%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Algeti (draw refunded)

42%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algeti at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algeti attack 2.50 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.45

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II attack 2.20 + Algeti defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Algeti scores more

35%

level

18%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II scores more

47%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff