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Algeti vs Irao — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Algeti
Algeti
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Irao
Irao
N. Toroshelidze 79'
L. Gogitadze 59', 6'
6/20/2025David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd RoundMarneulis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Algeti29%
×Draw18%
Irao53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeti
2.13
Irao
2.88

Irao creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Algeti
2.50
Irao
2.25

allows per match

Algeti
3.50
Irao
1.75

finishing

Algeti+0.00on par
Irao+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeti ↓

Irao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Algeti or draw
47%
Algeti or Irao
82%
Draw or Irao
71%

Winning margin

Algeti wins by 2+
15%
Irao wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Algeti 1+ goals
88%
Algeti 2+ goals
63%
Algeti 3+ goals
35%
Irao 1+ goals
94%
Irao 2+ goals
78%
Irao 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Algeti (draw refunded)
35%
Irao (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeti at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Irao away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeti attack 2.50 + Irao defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Irao attack 2.25 + Algeti defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Algeti scores more
29%
level
18%
Irao scores more
53%

Irao at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Irao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Gogitadze
59'
L. Gogitadze
79'
N. Toroshelidze
Algeti
Irao
G. Jorjoliani
Manager: G. Jorjoliani
D. Dighmelashvili
Manager: D. Dighmelashvili

Algeti 3 – 0 Irao

Algeti beat Irao 3-0 in David Kipiani Cup on June 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Gogitadze (6', 59'), N. Toroshelidze (79').

The match was played at Marneulis Stadioni in Marneuli.