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Algeti vs Chiatura — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Algeti
Algeti
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chiatura
Chiatura
11/12/2015Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 13Sport-kompleksi Shatili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Algeti55%
×Draw23%
Chiatura22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeti
1.88
Chiatura
1.10

Algeti creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Algeti
2.00
Chiatura
1.00

allows per match

Algeti
1.20
Chiatura
1.75

finishing

Algeti+0.00on par
Chiatura+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeti ↓

Chiatura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Algeti or draw
78%
Algeti or Chiatura
77%
Draw or Chiatura
45%

Winning margin

Algeti wins by 2+
32%
Chiatura wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Algeti 1+ goals
85%
Algeti 2+ goals
56%
Algeti 3+ goals
29%
Chiatura 1+ goals
67%
Chiatura 2+ goals
30%
Chiatura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Algeti (draw refunded)
72%
Chiatura (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeti at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Chiatura away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeti attack 2.00 + Chiatura defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chiatura attack 1.00 + Algeti defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Algeti scores more
55%
level
23%
Chiatura scores more
22%

Algeti at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Algeti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeti vs Chiatura

Algeti beat Chiatura 4-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 12, 2015.

The match was played at Sport-kompleksi Shatili in Tbilisi.