Algeria W 2–1 Kenya W: Result & Stats

Algeria W

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kenya W

R. Khezami 90', 48'

M. Jereko 17'

11/26/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Algeria W55%

×Draw24%

Kenya W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Algeria WExpected goals in this matchKenya W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.89

Algeria W

1.66

Kenya W

0.89

Algeria W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

1.08

0.70

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Algeria W

1.40

Kenya W

1.08

allows per match

Algeria W

0.70

Kenya W

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeria W+0.00on par

Kenya W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria W ↓

Kenya W →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Algeria W or draw

80%

Algeria W or Kenya W

76%

Draw or Kenya W

45%

Winning margin

Algeria W wins by 2+

30%

Kenya W wins by 2+

Team goals

Algeria W 1+ goals

81%

Algeria W 2+ goals

49%

Algeria W 3+ goals

23%

Kenya W 1+ goals

59%

Kenya W 2+ goals

22%

Kenya W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Algeria W (draw refunded)

73%

Kenya W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algeria W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Kenya W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algeria W attack 1.40 + Kenya W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kenya W attack 1.08 + Algeria W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Algeria W scores more

55%

level

24%

Kenya W scores more

20%

Algeria W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Algeria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Jereko

48'

R. Khezami

90'

R. Khezami

Algeria

Kenya

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Farid Benstiti

Algeria W substitutes

2D'oria18Jacob25Abadou5Alouache8Bouzid24Naili15Battouri14Boutaleb13Bendris22Moussa21Smits23Benaissa

Kenya W substitutes

KunduMuyeraOchakaKhasialaCorazoneMuteshiMorangaMadalinaKhaembaShilwatsoNekesaWambui

Friendlies Women: Algeria W 2–1 Kenya W

Algeria W beat Kenya W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on November 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Jereko (17'), R. Khezami (48', 90').

Algeria W vs Kenya W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Algeria W 2–1 Kenya W