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Algeria W vs Burkina Faso W — Friendlies Women 2020

Algeria W
Algeria W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burkina Faso W
Burkina Faso W
2/27/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade de Nelson Mandela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Algeria W65%
×Draw21%
Burkina Faso W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria W
1.90
Burkina Faso W
0.73

Algeria W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Algeria W
1.50
Burkina Faso W
0.71

allows per match

Algeria W
0.75
Burkina Faso W
2.29

finishing

Algeria W+0.00on par
Burkina Faso W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria W ↓

Burkina Faso W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Algeria W or draw
86%
Algeria W or Burkina Faso W
79%
Draw or Burkina Faso W
35%

Winning margin

Algeria W wins by 2+
39%
Burkina Faso W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Algeria W 1+ goals
85%
Algeria W 2+ goals
56%
Algeria W 3+ goals
29%
Burkina Faso W 1+ goals
52%
Burkina Faso W 2+ goals
17%
Burkina Faso W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Algeria W (draw refunded)
83%
Burkina Faso W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Burkina Faso W away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria W attack 1.50 + Burkina Faso W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Burkina Faso W attack 0.71 + Algeria W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Algeria W scores more
65%
level
21%
Burkina Faso W scores more
14%

Algeria W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Algeria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeria W vs Burkina Faso W

Algeria W beat Burkina Faso W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Nelson Mandela in Baraki.