Algeria 1–1 Tunisia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Algeria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tunisia

Riyad Mahrez 38' (pen)

Montassar Talbi 13'

6/20/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade du 19 Mai 1956

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Algeria66%

×Draw21%

Tunisia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgeriaExpected goals in this matchTunisia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.74

Algeria

1.96

Tunisia

0.74

Algeria creates 165% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

2.36

creates per match

0.72

0.77

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Algeria

2.36

Tunisia

0.72

allows per match

Algeria

0.77

Tunisia

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par

Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Tunisia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Algeria or draw

87%

Algeria or Tunisia

79%

Draw or Tunisia

34%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+

41%

Tunisia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals

86%

Algeria 2+ goals

58%

Algeria 3+ goals

31%

Tunisia 1+ goals

52%

Tunisia 2+ goals

17%

Tunisia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)

83%

Tunisia (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Tunisia away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 2.36 + Tunisia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tunisia attack 0.72 + Algeria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Algeria scores more

66%

level

21%

Tunisia scores more

13%

Algeria at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Montassar Talbi↳ Ali Abdi

31'

Ali Abdi

38'

Riyad MahrezPenalty

48'

Ramiz Zerrouki

59'

Houssem Aouar← Ramiz Zerrouki

59'

Baghdad Bounedjah← Islam Slimani

70'

Hamdi Labidi← Issam Jebali

70'

Mohamed Dräger← Wajdi Kechrida

74'

Mohamed El Amine Amoura← Saïd Benrahma

74'

Mehdi Léris← Kevin Van Den Kerkhof

76'

Mortadha Ben Ouanes← Elias Achouri

76'

Anis Ben Slimane← Hannibal Mejbri

85'

Himad Abdelli← Farès Chaïbi

90+2'

Hamdi Labidi

90'

Mohamed Dhaoui← Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane

Statistics

AlgeriaTunisia

Overview

1Corners7

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2