Algeria 0–0 Sierra Leone: Result & Stats

Algeria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sierra Leone

1/11/2022

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Algeria49%

×Draw30%

Sierra Leone21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgeriaExpected goals in this matchSierra Leone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.69

Algeria

1.21

Sierra Leone

0.69

Algeria creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

1.43

creates per match

0.67

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Algeria

1.43

Sierra Leone

0.67

allows per match

Algeria

0.71

Sierra Leone

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par

Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Sierra Leone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Algeria or draw

79%

Algeria or Sierra Leone

70%

Draw or Sierra Leone

51%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+

22%

Sierra Leone wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals

70%

Algeria 2+ goals

34%

Algeria 3+ goals

12%

Sierra Leone 1+ goals

50%

Sierra Leone 2+ goals

15%

Sierra Leone 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)

70%

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 1.43 + Sierra Leone defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sierra Leone attack 0.67 + Algeria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Algeria scores more

49%

level

30%

Sierra Leone scores more

21%

Algeria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Mohamed Nbalie Kamara

Sierra Leone · G

8.9

Match Events

35'

Abdelkader Bedrane

46'

D. Benlamri← A. Bedrane

64'

F. Boulaya← S. Feghouli

64'

B. Bounedjah← I. Slimani

64'

S. Bendebka← Y. Brahimi

76'

S. Fofanah← A. Kamara

77'

Umaru Bangura

83'

S. Benrahma← H. Belkebla

84'

S. Kaikai← M. Turay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlgeriaSierra

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots9

10Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots9

8On Target1

5Off Target8

6Blocked0

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

493Total Passes239

433Accurate Passes194

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3