Algeria 5–1 Liberia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Algeria

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Liberia

6/17/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Olympique d'Oran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Algeria72%

×Draw20%

Liberia8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgeriaExpected goals in this matchLiberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.47

Algeria

1.89

Liberia

0.47

Algeria creates 302% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

2.36

creates per match

0.17

0.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Algeria

2.36

Liberia

0.17

allows per match

Algeria

0.77

Liberia

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par

Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Liberia →

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Algeria or draw

92%

Algeria or Liberia

80%

Draw or Liberia

28%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+

45%

Liberia wins by 2+

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals

85%

Algeria 2+ goals

56%

Algeria 3+ goals

29%

Liberia 1+ goals

37%

Liberia 2+ goals

Liberia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)

90%

Liberia (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Liberia away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 2.36 + Liberia defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.89

Liberia attack 0.17 + Algeria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Algeria scores more

72%

level

20%

Liberia scores more

Algeria at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff