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Algeria vs Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Algeria
Algeria
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guinea
Guinea
7/7/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · 8th Finals30 June Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Algeria48%
×Draw29%
Guinea23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria
1.30
Guinea
0.81

Algeria creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Algeria
1.43
Guinea
0.91

allows per match

Algeria
0.71
Guinea
1.18

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeria or draw
77%
Algeria or Guinea
71%
Draw or Guinea
52%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+
22%
Guinea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals
73%
Algeria 2+ goals
37%
Algeria 3+ goals
14%
Guinea 1+ goals
56%
Guinea 2+ goals
19%
Guinea 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)
67%
Guinea (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 1.43 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guinea attack 0.91 + Algeria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Algeria scores more
48%
level
29%
Guinea scores more
23%

Algeria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Algeria 3–0 Guinea

Algeria beat Guinea 3-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at 30 June Stadium in Cairo.