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Algeria vs Burundi — Friendlies 2026

Algeria
Algeria
CANC
19:45
Burundi
Burundi
6/16/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Olympique d'Oran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Algeria70%
×Draw19%
Burundi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria
2.12
Burundi
0.71

Algeria creates 199% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Algeria
2.40
Burundi
0.67

allows per match

Algeria
0.75
Burundi
1.83

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par
Burundi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Burundi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Algeria or draw
89%
Algeria or Burundi
81%
Draw or Burundi
30%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+
45%
Burundi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals
88%
Algeria 2+ goals
62%
Algeria 3+ goals
35%
Burundi 1+ goals
51%
Burundi 2+ goals
16%
Burundi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)
86%
Burundi (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Burundi away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 2.40 + Burundi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.12

Burundi attack 0.67 + Algeria defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Algeria scores more
70%
level
19%
Burundi scores more
11%

Algeria at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Algeria vs Burundi — Match Preview

Algeria face Burundi on June 16, 2021 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Algeria host Burundi at Stade Olympique d'Oran.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.