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Algeria vs Angola — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Algeria
Algeria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Angola
Angola
1/15/2024Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Algeria49%
×Draw29%
Angola22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria
1.30
Angola
0.76

Algeria creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Algeria
1.38
Angola
0.89

allows per match

Algeria
0.62
Angola
1.22

finishing

Algeria+0.00on par
Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria ↓

Angola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeria or draw
78%
Algeria or Angola
71%
Draw or Angola
51%

Winning margin

Algeria wins by 2+
23%
Angola wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Algeria 1+ goals
73%
Algeria 2+ goals
37%
Algeria 3+ goals
14%
Angola 1+ goals
53%
Angola 2+ goals
18%
Angola 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Algeria (draw refunded)
69%
Angola (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Angola away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria attack 1.38 + Angola defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Angola attack 0.89 + Algeria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Algeria scores more
49%
level
29%
Angola scores more
22%

Algeria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Algeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Algeria 1–1 Angola

Algeria and Angola drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Bouaké in Bouaké.