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Algeria U20 vs Mauritania U20 — Friendlies 2018

Algeria U20
Algeria U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mauritania U20
Mauritania U20
3/26/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Algeria U2065%
×Draw17%
Mauritania U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeria U20
2.67
Mauritania U20
1.33

Algeria U20 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Algeria U20
2.33
Mauritania U20
1.00

allows per match

Algeria U20
1.67
Mauritania U20
3.00

finishing

Algeria U20+0.00on par
Mauritania U20+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeria U20 ↓

Mauritania U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Algeria U20 or draw
83%
Algeria U20 or Mauritania U20
83%
Draw or Mauritania U20
35%

Winning margin

Algeria U20 wins by 2+
44%
Mauritania U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Algeria U20 1+ goals
93%
Algeria U20 2+ goals
74%
Algeria U20 3+ goals
49%
Mauritania U20 1+ goals
74%
Mauritania U20 2+ goals
38%
Mauritania U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Algeria U20 (draw refunded)
79%
Mauritania U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeria U20 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Mauritania U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeria U20 attack 2.33 + Mauritania U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Mauritania U20 attack 1.00 + Algeria U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Algeria U20 scores more
65%
level
17%
Mauritania U20 scores more
17%

Algeria U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Algeria U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Algeria U20 3–1 Mauritania U20

Algeria U20 beat Mauritania U20 3-1 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.