Algeciras 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Algeciras

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

Álvaro Romero 45+2' (pen)

Raúl Beneit 75'

10/9/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras37%

×Draw30%

Unionistas de Salamanca32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgecirasExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.98

Algeciras

1.08

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.98

Algeciras creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

0.89

creates per match

0.91

1.05

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Algeciras

0.89

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Algeciras

1.05

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw

68%

Algeciras or Unionistas de Salamanca

70%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

63%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+

15%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals

66%

Algeciras 2+ goals

29%

Algeciras 3+ goals

10%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

62%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

26%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)

54%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Algeciras scores more

37%

level

30%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

32%

Algeciras at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Vicente

40'

Juampa

45+1'

M. Gomez

45+2'

Álvaro RomeroPenalty

56'

C. Albarran

62'

De Miguel← Mario Losada

62'

Iván Chapela← J. Barros

63'

David Martín← Iñaki Elejalde

63'

Juanito Serrano← Pepe Mena

70'

Mizzian← Roni

75'

Raúl Beneit

78'

U. Veiga

82'

Alfredo Pedraza← Tropi

84'

86'

90+1'

90+1'

Algeciras

Unionistas

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Ania

63'▲David Martín←▼Iñaki Elejalde

63'▲Juanito Serrano←▼Pepe Mena

70'▲Mizzian←▼Roni

Algeciras substitutes

MartínSerranoMizzianDomínguezGallardoNavarroPimientaBenítezGarcíaFlereSiddiki

Manager: Raúl Casañ

62'▲De Miguel←▼Mario Losada

62'▲Iván Chapela←▼J. Barros

82'▲Alfredo Pedraza←▼Tropi

86'▲I. Obeng←▼De la Nava

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

MiguelChapelaPedrazaObengSánchezLealAlhassan