Algeciras 0–1 Real Madrid II: Result & Stats

Algeciras

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid II

5/27/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras36%

×Draw27%

Real Madrid II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgecirasExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.26

Algeciras

1.23

Real Madrid II

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

0.89

creates per match

1.47

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Algeciras

0.89

Real Madrid II

1.47

allows per match

Algeciras

1.05

Real Madrid II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw

63%

Algeciras or Real Madrid II

73%

Draw or Real Madrid II

64%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+

15%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals

71%

Algeciras 2+ goals

35%

Algeciras 3+ goals

13%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

36%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)

49%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Real Madrid II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Madrid II attack 1.47 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Algeciras scores more

36%

level

27%

Real Madrid II scores more

37%

Real Madrid II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff