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Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
9/3/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras40%
×Draw29%
Rayo Majadahonda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.18
Rayo Majadahonda
1.00

Algeciras creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Algeciras
0.89
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Algeciras
1.05
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
69%
Algeciras or Rayo Majadahonda
71%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
60%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
17%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
69%
Algeciras 2+ goals
33%
Algeciras 3+ goals
12%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
63%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
26%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
56%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Algeciras scores more
40%
level
29%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
31%

Algeciras at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda

Algeciras beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.