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Algeciras vs Llagostera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Llagostera
Llagostera
10/10/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras54%
×Draw27%
Llagostera18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.42
Llagostera
0.70

Algeciras creates 103% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Llagostera
0.58

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Llagostera
1.58

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Llagostera+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Llagostera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
82%
Algeciras or Llagostera
73%
Draw or Llagostera
46%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
27%
Llagostera wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
76%
Algeciras 2+ goals
41%
Algeciras 3+ goals
17%
Llagostera 1+ goals
50%
Llagostera 2+ goals
16%
Llagostera 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
75%
Llagostera (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Llagostera away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Llagostera defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Llagostera attack 0.58 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Algeciras scores more
54%
level
27%
Llagostera scores more
18%

Algeciras at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeciras vs Llagostera

Algeciras beat Llagostera 5-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.