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Algeciras vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
1/14/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Algeciras41%
×Draw27%
Linares Deportivo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.30
Linares Deportivo
1.11

Algeciras creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Algeciras
0.89
Linares Deportivo
1.17

allows per match

Algeciras
1.05
Linares Deportivo
1.72

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
68%
Algeciras or Linares Deportivo
73%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
59%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
18%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
73%
Algeciras 2+ goals
37%
Algeciras 3+ goals
14%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
56%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.30

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Algeciras scores more
41%
level
27%
Linares Deportivo scores more
32%

Algeciras at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Algeciras 3–3 Linares Deportivo

Algeciras and Linares Deportivo drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.