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Algeciras vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Badajoz
Badajoz
1/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras39%
×Draw31%
Badajoz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.08
Badajoz
0.91

Algeciras creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Algeciras
0.89
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Algeciras
1.05
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
70%
Algeciras or Badajoz
69%
Draw or Badajoz
61%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
16%
Badajoz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
66%
Algeciras 2+ goals
29%
Algeciras 3+ goals
10%
Badajoz 1+ goals
60%
Badajoz 2+ goals
23%
Badajoz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
56%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Algeciras scores more
39%
level
31%
Badajoz scores more
30%

Algeciras at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Algeciras 1–1 Badajoz

Algeciras and Badajoz drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.