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Algeciras vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
12/7/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Algeciras42%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.25
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

Algeciras creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
70%
Algeciras or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
58%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
71%
Algeciras 2+ goals
36%
Algeciras 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
59%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Algeciras scores more
42%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
30%

Algeciras at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Algeciras 1 – 0 Atlético Madrid II

Algeciras beat Atlético Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.