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Algeciras vs Alcoyano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
5/17/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Algeciras45%
×Draw29%
Alcoyano26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.23
Alcoyano
0.86

Algeciras creates 43% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Alcoyano
0.91

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Alcoyano
1.21

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
74%
Algeciras or Alcoyano
71%
Draw or Alcoyano
55%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
20%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
71%
Algeciras 2+ goals
35%
Algeciras 3+ goals
13%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
58%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
21%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
63%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Algeciras scores more
45%
level
29%
Alcoyano scores more
26%

Algeciras at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Algeciras 2–1 Alcoyano

Algeciras beat Alcoyano 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.