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Algar vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Algar
Algar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar35%
×Draw25%
UD Caravaca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algar
1.38
UD Caravaca
1.52

UD Caravaca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Algar
1.18
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Algar
1.88
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Algar+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Algar or draw
59%
Algar or UD Caravaca
75%
Draw or UD Caravaca
65%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+
16%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals
75%
Algar 2+ goals
40%
Algar 3+ goals
16%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
78%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
45%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)
46%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Algar scores more
35%
level
25%
UD Caravaca scores more
41%

UD Caravaca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 2–1 UD Caravaca

Algar beat UD Caravaca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.