Algar 1–0 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Algar

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Murcia II

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar29%

×Draw25%

Real Murcia II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgarExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.56

Algar

1.17

Real Murcia II

1.56

Real Murcia II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.88

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Algar

1.18

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Algar

1.88

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algar+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Algar or draw

54%

Algar or Real Murcia II

75%

Draw or Real Murcia II

71%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+

11%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals

69%

Algar 2+ goals

33%

Algar 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

79%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

46%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)

38%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Algar scores more

29%

level

25%

Real Murcia II scores more

46%

Real Murcia II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 1–0 Real Murcia II

Algar beat Real Murcia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.

Algar vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Algar 1–0 Real Murcia II