Algar 4–3 Plus Ultra: Result & Stats

Algar

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Plus Ultra

5/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar50%

×Draw23%

Plus Ultra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgarExpected goals in this matchPlus Ultra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.33

Algar

1.87

Plus Ultra

1.33

Algar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

1.18

creates per match

0.79

1.88

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Algar

1.18

Plus Ultra

0.79

allows per match

Algar

1.88

Plus Ultra

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algar+0.00on par

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Plus Ultra →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Algar or draw

73%

Algar or Plus Ultra

77%

Draw or Plus Ultra

50%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+

28%

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals

85%

Algar 2+ goals

56%

Algar 3+ goals

29%

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

74%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

38%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)

65%

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Algar scores more

50%

level

23%

Plus Ultra scores more

27%

Algar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Algar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff