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Algar vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Algar
Algar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Montecasillas
Montecasillas
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar54%
×Draw22%
Montecasillas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algar
2.00
Montecasillas
1.29

Algar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Algar
1.18
Montecasillas
0.71

allows per match

Algar
1.88
Montecasillas
2.82

finishing

Algar+0.00on par
Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Montecasillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Algar or draw
75%
Algar or Montecasillas
78%
Draw or Montecasillas
46%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+
31%
Montecasillas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals
86%
Algar 2+ goals
59%
Algar 3+ goals
32%
Montecasillas 1+ goals
72%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
37%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)
69%
Montecasillas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Algar scores more
54%
level
22%
Montecasillas scores more
25%

Algar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Algar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algar vs Montecasillas

Algar beat Montecasillas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.