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Alga vs Nur-Batken — Premier League 2019

Alga
Alga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nur-Batken
Nur-Batken
10/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadion KGAFKiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alga48%
×Draw24%
Nur-Batken28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alga
1.71
Nur-Batken
1.25

Alga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alga
1.51
Nur-Batken
1.15

allows per match

Alga
1.35
Nur-Batken
1.92

finishing

Alga+0.00on par
Nur-Batken+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alga ↓

Nur-Batken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alga or draw
72%
Alga or Nur-Batken
76%
Draw or Nur-Batken
52%

Winning margin

Alga wins by 2+
26%
Nur-Batken wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alga 1+ goals
82%
Alga 2+ goals
51%
Alga 3+ goals
24%
Nur-Batken 1+ goals
71%
Nur-Batken 2+ goals
36%
Nur-Batken 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alga (draw refunded)
63%
Nur-Batken (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alga at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Nur-Batken away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alga attack 1.51 + Nur-Batken defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nur-Batken attack 1.15 + Alga defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alga scores more
48%
level
24%
Nur-Batken scores more
28%

Alga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alga vs Nur-Batken

Alga beat Nur-Batken 2-1 in Premier League on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion KGAFKiS in Bishkek.