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Alga vs Kaganat — Premier League 2019

Alga
Alga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaganat
Kaganat
10/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion KGAFKiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Alga45%
×Draw24%
Kaganat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alga
1.61
Kaganat
1.29

Alga creates 25% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 35 away

creates per match

Alga
1.51
Kaganat
1.23

allows per match

Alga
1.35
Kaganat
1.71

finishing

Alga+0.00on par
Kaganat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alga ↓

Kaganat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alga or draw
69%
Alga or Kaganat
76%
Draw or Kaganat
55%

Winning margin

Alga wins by 2+
23%
Kaganat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alga 1+ goals
80%
Alga 2+ goals
48%
Alga 3+ goals
22%
Kaganat 1+ goals
72%
Kaganat 2+ goals
37%
Kaganat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alga (draw refunded)
59%
Kaganat (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alga at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Kaganat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alga attack 1.51 + Kaganat defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kaganat attack 1.23 + Alga defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alga scores more
45%
level
24%
Kaganat scores more
31%

Alga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alga vs Kaganat

Alga beat Kaganat 2-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion KGAFKiS in Bishkek.